Today marks the last two years of the Marcos administration. Time is ticking like sand slipping through the hourglass. With all that has happened in the past four years, I wonder what the President thinks as he looks ahead. The promises of stability and growth now meet the hard reality of, among others, downgrades from three of the world’s biggest rating agencies.
This month, the blows came one after another. On June 22, Moody’s Investors Service shifted the banking sector outlook from stable to negative, warning that weak growth and high inflation could raise credit costs and erode asset quality. Just three days later, on June 25, S&P Global Ratings cut its forecast for Philippine growth to just a little over 4 percent, the sharpest downgrade in Asia. That same day, Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for the country to “deteriorating,” cautioning that rising economic pressures could weaken borrowers’ ability to pay and squeeze bank earnings. Three separate warnings, all within a single week. A triple whammy!
These agencies matter because their assessments shape how investors, lenders, and even governments decide where to put their money. When they raise a red flag, the world listens. For the economy, the meaning is simple: borrowing money will cost more. Investors will hesitate. Government projects may stall because financing is harder to secure. A downgrade is like a caution sign held up to lenders and markets: be careful, don’t rush in.
For banks, the message is equally clear. Bad loans are expected to increase. Families who borrowed for homes, cars, or credit cards may struggle to pay. Banks will tighten lending, making it tougher for small businesses and workers to get credit. What was once easy money could now become a heavy burden.
For ordinary people, the impact is felt every day. Prices of food and fuel remain high. Inflation eats into wages. Loan payments climb as interest rates rise. The dream of owning a house or starting a small business feels further away. Even those with savings feel uneasy, knowing jobs may be harder to find. Kawawang Juan dela Cruz…
The government’s response has been to stress that the Philippines is still investment grade. Technically true, but downgrades show cracks in the foundation. Officials say fundamentals are strong, yet people see stalled infrastructure, rising debt, and corruption scandals. The words don’t match the lived experience.
And these outlooks are only one of the many challenges the country is facing. A nation divided by politics, with an impeachment trial set to begin next week. Instead of focusing on solutions to improve the economy and ease the burden of the people, a substantial chunk of our energy will be consumed by this political circus. The timing could not be worse. (I am not saying that the impeachment trial should not have been pursued, only that its timing adds another layer of distraction when the country is already under strain.)
For President Marcos, the downgrades and the political turmoil collide at a critical moment. Two years left, and the country is facing slower growth, higher inflation, a banking sector under stress, and a political environment that is adding instability. The downgrades are not just about numbers. They are about credibility. Can the Marcos administration still deliver on its promises? Or will it leave behind a weaker economy than it inherited?
The lesson is simple: downgrades mean less trust. Less trust from investors, less trust from lenders, and less trust from the public. Rebuilding that trust requires more than speeches. It requires action—reviving infrastructure spending, protecting households from inflation, and showing that governance is clean and decisive.
As the clock ticks toward 2028, the question is whether Marcos will use these last two years to steady the ship or let it drift. The downgrades are a wake‑up call. For the economy and for the people, the time for excuses has passed. What remains is the hard work of repair. And perhaps, as June 30 reminds us, the President himself must be asking: what legacy will I leave behind?
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