Polling firm Pulse Asia said on Tuesday, May 13, it will launch a full review of its methodology after its final pre-election survey failed to predict the stunning rise of opposition candidates in the Senate race.
“This election has shown the widest discrepancy between our surveys and the actual results,” Pulse Asia President Ronald Holmes said in an interview with Bilyonaryo News Channel. “The variance is significant — it’s quite wild.”
Partial and unofficial results from Monday’s midterm elections showed former senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan — allies of former Vice President Leni Robredo and the opposition “Pinklawan” bloc — breaking into the top five of the Senate race.
Both had polled poorly in Pulse Asia’s April 20–24 survey, with Aquino barely making the projected top 12 and Pangilinan not placing at all.
In contrast, high-profile candidates who topped Pulse Asia’s final survey — including Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., Makati Mayor Abby Binay, broadcaster Ben Tulfo, and TV host Willie Revillame — failed to crack the top 12.
SAGIP Party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, who was far behind in pre-election polls, surged to eighth place in the unofficial tally, adding to questions over the accuracy of Pulse Asia’s projections.
Holmes said the mismatch is prompting “a thorough review of our sampling and methodology,” while defending that surveys “are snapshots of a particular moment” and that “public opinion can shift dramatically after that point.”
The results have rattled political circles and cast doubt on the influence and reliability of polling data in Philippine elections, where surveys often shape media coverage and campaign momentum.
The Commission on Elections has yet to certify the final count, but the emerging trend has forced pollsters and political operators to confront the growing disconnect between public surveys and actual voter behavior. (TCSP)
