The Philippine government has trimmed its economic growth outlook for 2025 through 2028, citing a volatile global landscape marked by Middle East tensions and looming U.S. trade barriers.
In a briefing held on Thursday, the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced that it now expects the economy to grow between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2025, down from its earlier target of 6.0% to 8.0%. Projections for 2026 to 2028 were also narrowed to 6.0% to 7.0%, reflecting a more cautious stance amid external headwinds.
Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, said the revisions were driven by “heightened global uncertainties,” including the recent flare-up between Israel and Iran and the United States’ plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on Philippine goods.
Although a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has temporarily eased tensions, the economic ripple effects remain. Meanwhile, the U.S. has paused its 17% tariff plan for most countries, but the Philippines could still face a baseline 10% tariff under Washington’s “Liberation Day” policy.
Despite the challenges, Pangandaman assured that the country’s international reserves remain robust, providing a buffer against external shocks. “The DBCC remains vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures,” she said.
Trade is expected to take a hit, with goods exports projected to shrink by 2.0% this year, while imports are forecast to grow by 3.5%, buoyed by domestic demand.
On the sidelines of the briefing, Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Frederick Go said trade talks with the U.S. are ongoing, with July 9 eyed as the target date for finalizing negotiations.
The DBCC also updated its macroeconomic assumptions: inflation is expected to average 2.0% to 3.0%, Dubai crude prices are pegged at $60 to $70 per barrel, and the peso is projected to hover between ₱56 and ₱57 to the dollar.
Despite the trimmed forecasts, officials remain optimistic. “We are committed to a fiscal consolidation agenda that supports a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economy,” the DBCC said in its joint statement.#
PH economic officials slash 2025–2028 growth forecasts
The Philippine economic team slashed its growth forecasts for this year and the next three years, citing heightened global uncertainties such as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.
The inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) now targets economic growth to average between 5.5% to 6.5% this year, slower than the previous target range of 6.0% to 8.0%.
The DBCC also lowered its target range from 2026 to 2028 to 6.0% to 7.0% from the previous range of 6.0% to 7.0%.
“The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,” the DBCC said in a joint statement read by chairman and Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman in a briefing in Mandaluyong City.
“Despite these headwinds, the DBCC remains vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy. Moreover, international reserves remain ample providing adequate buffer to help absorb these external shocks,” she added.
Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated in the past week, but the two parties have sent signals that the conflict was over at least for now, as they have agreed to a ceasefire under pressure from US President Donald Trump.
The DBCC now expects goods exports to contract 2.0% this year, and goods imports to expand by 3.5%.
The United States earlier planned to slap a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods as part of the “Liberation Day” policy, which compares with the 34% rate that Manila charges against American goods. This was set to take effect on April 9, but Trump announced a 90-day pause on most countries except China, while countries such as the Philippines could still face a baseline 10% tariff.
Sought for the latest updates regarding the trade negotiations with the US, Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Secretary Frederick Go said July 9 remains to be the target for negotiations to be finalized.
“We have not heard otherwise. Of course the markets are swirling with different kinds of news from different countries, but for now we continue to negotiate with the U.S. We have submitted some of our suggested negotiation points and the U.S. has also responded, so it’s a back and forth,” he said in the same briefing.
The DBCC on Thursday also announced new macroeconomic assumptions for the year — inflation to average 2.0% to 3.0%, Dubai crude at $60 to $70 per barrel, the foreign exchange rate at P56:$1 to P57:$1.
“The DBCC remains resolute in advancing a growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation agenda that promotes a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economy,” it said.
May dalawang video editor sa congress tv nahuli ng guard ng ibc na gumamit bg drugs sa office nila. May mga naiwan na drug paraphernalia
Mga dating taga PTV yun. Kinuha ni septic tank nilagay sa Congress TV bago inilipat sa IBC 13.
Photo-op drugs, school
Maglilinis ng estero
Usec sa OP Gerald Barria
Lahat ng private events siya ang nagsu-shoot
