By Diego Morra
This is exactly not exciting news for Filipino farmers but the Thai newspaper The Nation reported on Nov. 3, 2025 that the Philippines will be importing 300,000 metric tons (MT) of rice from Thailand in January 2026, four months after Malacanang stopped rice imports on the basis of a bumper harvest despite the floods, typhoons and other disasters that struck the country.
“The Philippines will open rice imports of 300,000 tons in January 2026 after local stocks dropped following an import ban imposed since September. Meanwhile, Vietnam reports a strong harvest and maintains its export target at 8 million tons, as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns of possible El Niño conditions late this year that could reduce rice supply across the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN),” The Nation reported.
The rice import ban ruffled the feathers of Vietnamese rice exporters who groused that the ban would impact negatively on rice farmers, actually rice traders of Vinafood2, since the Philippines is the main destination of low-grade 25% brokens. On the other hand, Thailand has already shifted from lower priced grain to serve high niche markets across Asia with fragrant rice. The Vietnamese traders actually complained that the sudden import ban hit them like lightning, catching them unawares. As one Filipino rice miller said, low-quality rice that cannot be sold to the Philippines ultimately end up as livestock feed in Vietnam.
The administration incentivized rice importations when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 62, which slashed rice tariffs from 35% to 15% until 2028 in order to “tame rising retail prices and mitigate food inflation.” Government also set a review of the rate every four months. Farmers bewailed he tariff reduction, insisting it would be a disincentive to them, particularly those who have raised their output as the import tariff was pegged at 35%. The Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) and the women peasant group Amihan scored Malacanang for being confused about the actual farming conditions and the rice market, leading to a contradictory policy of open liberalized imports alternating with intermittent rice import bans.
According to Agriculture Secretary Francis Tiu Laurel Jr., he recommended the rice import ban extension to the President as “to provide sustained support to local producers, maintain market stability, and allow a more comprehensive assessment of the policy’s effects.” He admitted that the import ban helped raise the farmgate prices of palay in Isabela and Nueva Ecija to between P13 to P14 per kilo. In many areas, palay prices slid to as low as P8 per kilo before the import freeze, indicating that there was a glut of imported rice. The highest palay price was P16.50 per kilo between Sept. 8 and 12 before sinking to P13.50 from Sept. 15 to 19. At that level, farmers would be losing since the cost of production ranges from P12 to P14 a kilo.
KMP, Amihan and the Nagkakaisang Magsasakang Novo Ecijano (Namane) have urged the government to set a floor price of P20 per kilo for palay. They also rejected the government move to set a price of P17 per kilo of palay, noting that farmers would incur huge losses as prices of farm inputs rise, along with fuel, which has increased by P16 per liter as government refused to scrap the Oil Deregulation Law, leading the oil cartel to determine prices. They want Malacanang to increase the tariff on imported rice to 35%.
The Philippines had already imported 3.5 MMT by the end of September 2025, in excess of its annual target by 800,000 MT. The country imports 300,000 MT per month, or 3.6 MMT per year, with Vietnam supplying 25% brokens and Thailand selling 5% fragrant rice. In short, there was already 800,000 MT of imported rice in the market when the ban was imposed. That is the reason why farmgate palay prices never breached P17 per kilo. Somewhere, rice stocks are stashed and ready to be released dribs by drabs to keep prices up.
In Thailand, the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) said rice production will peak this month, with output reaching 17.375 million metric tons (MMT) of paddy rice or 63.82% of total main harvest. The Thai Rice Millers Association reported that as of October 29, 2025, the price of 15%-moisture white paddy in Ayutthaya stood at 6,200–6,600 baht per ton, down from 6,300–6,700 baht on September 29, 2025, The Nation reported. Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) reported that more than 90% of the autumn harvest in the Mekong Delta has been completed, with good yields despite recent heavy rains. The government reaffirmed its 2025 export target of 8 MMT, while the price of 5% broken white rice remains around US$595 per ton (about 19,245 baht) — comparable to Thai prices — intensifying regional competition, especially in Philippine and Malaysian markets.
