Finance Secretary Ralph Recto has been a champion of wordplay, and this was evident in his messaging when he campaigned several times for the Senate. Now, he is also into cosplay, and his crystal ball and tarot cards should come in handy as he essays the role of a seer, predicting that the Philippine economy will triple its size in 2033 and kick out France as the world’s 13th largest economy in 2075.
Or he can wear the habiliments of Rasputin and Svengali as he convinces 112 million Filipinos that change is coming, not scamming, and the country will become so prosperous it will give China a run for its money. However, he is more dashing when he wears Oxford shirts or “barong” rather than stiff clerical collars and the costumes that hold Trilby in thrall.
His declaration during the last Philippine Economic Briefing could earned a lot of snark as jaded observers cannot see where Recto got schooled in strange economic alchemy. As the Philippine economy is dead last in the bourses of Southeast Asia and the currency has performed second worst to Argentina, experts are asking how the economy could grow by leaps and bounds when all it gets are billions of dollars’ worth of pledges or imaginary investments.
Recto must have been reading a lot about the supposed P24-trillion investments that would pour in due to the reclamation projects in Manila Bay. Sad story to tell but Sofitel is shutting down the hotel as the number of patrons declined after they were robbed of the famed Manila Bay sunset, which draws in guests from near and far. These reclamation projects are guilty of blocking the natural waterways that drain floodwaters into the bay, making pumping stations work double time to bring floodwaters from Metro Manila, Rizal and Laguna to Manila Bay. The P180-billion redevelopment of the Cultural Center Complex will not bring in oodles of money, the way it lost revenues from the time it was built. When viability is taken out of the calculus for infrastructure projects, expect a parade of white elephants.
The proposed Bataan-Cavite Manila Bay Expressway is another brilliant idea that the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is funding. It connects Bataan and Cavite through the bay and the issue here is whether the bridge would spur more industrial investments. They should take a look at what is happening to the Manila-Bataan ferry route and determine whether there is really a need to build the span. Bataan and Cavite have become a paradise for land speculators and property developers and operators in free trade zones.
Garments factories on both sides of the bay are retrenching their workers as the US ban on Xinjiang cotton reduces foreign orders of good-quality Philippine-made apparel. Food production in both provinces has gone south as lands have been reclassified and transformed into subdivisions, kicking out farmers and fishermen. Putting good money after bad will make the bridge a good venue for Ferrari or Lamborghini races, like Ramon Ang’s poldered enclave called New Manila International Airport in Bulakan, Bulacan, and the plutocrats will be happy. The nation? It can dream on or share the delulu is the solulu of the administration.
Despite external challenges, Recto predicted the Philippines will outperform economies in the ASEAN region with a projected growth rate between 5.8% and 6.3% percent in 2024. Yet, the economy retreated at 5.7% on the first quarter of the year, failing to reach the projected target range of 6% and 7%. The forecast for 2025 is between 5.9% to 6.5% and the Finance chief might as well summon the angels on high to help the country surpass the target. In all likelihood, it will not be met, given the confirmation by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) that more farmers and workers are losing their jobs, the assembly lines for microelectronics are not getting foreign orders and Chinese buyers are withdrawing from the Philippine property market.
Yet, hope springs eternal. “This trajectory puts us firmly on course to become a trillion-dollar economy in less than a decade,” Recto declared. “This means that by 2033, our economy will nearly triple in size, placing us in the league of economic giants like China, Japan, India and South Korea.” This would actually require double- digit monthly economic growth rates that would beat China’s performance since it opened up the economy and transformed China into the sweatshop of the world.
